Perceptions of child costs as proximate determinant for Romanian fertility decline

Abstract

This paper explores the issue of demographic decline in Romania by looking at the three proximate factors of the Oppenheim Mason theoretical model of fertility transition. For two of these factors, child survival probabilities and cost of prenatal and postnatal controls, we used macro level data (population indicators). With low infant mortality and wide availability of prenatal birth control methods, these factors would favour low fertility. The third and last proximate factor is the perception of child cost and benefits for the household. The analysis of this factor we used both macro level data and individual level data from a representative national survey. As in almost all other European countries, there is a difference in Romania as well between the ideal and actual number of children. A plurality of adult Romanians in the sample (45 per cent) have fewer children that they would like to have; more than one third (37.6 per cent) have as many children as they would like to have, while a minority (17.3 per cent) have more children than they would like to have. Qualitative data analysis on the perceived reasons for which Romanians do not have the number of children they desire was carried through an indirect, openended question. A clear majority (55 percent) pointed to material issues concerning the standard of living at household level as the main reason. Health issues and infertility was the second category in a distant second (10 percent). Almost all social and economic variables have no influence, at individual level, with the variance of the answers to the open ended question. As the perception of high child costs acts as a third factor that also favours low fertility, we conclude that the cultural shift towards a restrained natality culture became more entrenched.